The EU Referendum – A Long Week In Politics

It’s been a strange few weeks in British politics. The EU referendum has driven every other kind of political question to the margins. The only question is IN or OUT of the European Union.

It is an open secret that the reason we are having a referendum at all. It is because the Prime Minister, David Comeron, feared a takeover by an alliance of the far right of his own Conservative Party and United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP).

He was accused at the time of putting party politics above the health of the nation. Indeed, ever since he began campaigning for Britain to stay in the EU, he has been saying what a disaster it would be if we left.

When he went to Brussels to negotiate changes. He said that by holding a referendum, the Euro partners would know that he wasn’t just posturing when he set out his demands.

And then he came back and pulled out of his hat a small or non-existent rabbit, or a big rabbit – depending on who is telling the story.

His message then was that we would risk falling off a cliff if we voted to leave.

Well if that was true when he said it, it was true before he went to Brussels and he should never have risked the decision to a vote that was out of his control.

How Real Is UKIP

So how real is the threat from UKIP? If there are only a few UKIP supporters, then they aren’t much of a threat.

After the national election, Lord Leach of Fairford, Chairman of Open Europe, wrote to the Times saying what would have happened had the German form of PR applied in the general election.

Under that system, any party getting less than five percent of the vote is not allocated seats. The reason for that is to prevent a huge number of parties with one or two votes each swamping the actual business of government.

And what would have happened is that we would have had the Conservatives with 275 seats, labour 229, UKIP 92, Lib Dems 54 and no seats for any of the other parties. That is, the SNP would not have got any seats at all.

The Scottish National Party swept the board in Scotland – but only because it has 56 constituencies in a country that is only five-million people out of a total UK population of sixty-four million.

In other words, our first-past-the-post system and the constituency boundaries that apply in elections hide the fact that UKIP has a large base of support.

Here are the numbers for the seats, the number gained and lost in the election, the actual number of the popular vote and the percentage of the vote that the number represents.

Conservatives 330 (+37, -10) 11,334,726 36.9%
Labour 232 (+23, -48) 9,347,324 30.4%
SNP 56 (+50, -0) 1,454,436 4.7%
Green 1 (+0, -0) 1,156,149 3.8%
Lib Dems 8 (+0, -48) 2,415,862 7.9%
UKIP 1 (+0, -1) 3,881,099 12.6%

Nearly four-million people voted for UKIP. But they only got one seat in Parliament.

So the threat was real and Cameron has played it well – well that is if the Remain camp wins.

But what a risk to take.

I think the vote will go with David Cameron and the Remain camp. And if it does, then he will be saved again. And for some stupid reason, people will think he was the better option and we will all love the moderate Tories. Ha!

This article was first published on NO MORE PENCILS

Remain or Leave The EU – Facts Help

University of Liverpool Law School’s Professor Dougan advises Governments on the implications of EU law – so he is well placed to speak.

Here follows my PRECIS of Professor Dougan’s talk on the facts about staying in or leaving the EU – but do watch the riveting talk he gives via the link above. It’s easy listening and clear as a bell. (He’s voting REMAIN).

Precis Of The Talk

We have not and do not give up sovereignty under the EU. We and all of the other European countries protect out own individual sovereignties as a matter of course when negotiating in the EU. Our sovereignty cannot be taken away by the EU.

The most comprehensive review of the EU 2012-14 undertaken by the Civil Services throughout the EU and including the UK concluded that the EU is beneficial – or as they said ‘What’s the problem?’

If we leave, UK legislation will have to be picked apart completely. This is a massive undertaking that Parliament will not be able to do in a timely manner. Government will do it.

[My question: What Government? Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Michael Gove?]

If we leave, a Comprehensive Framework Agreement For Future Relations with the EU must be undertaken. It will take at least 10 years to work out because the current framework is the largest and most comprehensive by far anywhere in the world.

The unique achievement of the EU is the Regulatory Framework of the Single Market. It authorises goods made to one country’s standards to be sold in another country within the EU.

If we leave the EU, we will not be offered access to the regulatory framework because the Leave campaign want to reject free movement of people and that is integral to the framework.

Therefore, trade will be affected adversely because the UK will not have the right to claim it satisfies EU standards.

If we leave, the 60 or 70 trade agreements with other countries will by-and-large end because they were negotiated within the framework of the EU – Leave the EU and the agreements no longer hold.

We are successful with trade agreements with other countries precisely because we made those agreements as part of the EU.

The USA, China, and India have all said that without the EU, Britain does not have a lot to offer.